Methodology
Raw Sentinel-2 captures + human-traced polygons.
Where the numbers come from. The honest version, including the parts that are still aspirational. Last methodology refresh: 2026-05-20.
1. Raw Sentinel-2 + ESRI captures
Today we run on ESRI World Imagery + Sentinel-2 — both free, both with predictable refresh cadence. Planet Labs and Maxar are on the roadmap; we won't claim daily-revisit numbers until they're actually wired.
| Source | Resolution | Refresh | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| ESRI World Imagery | ~30 cm/pixel (urban) / ~1 m elsewhere | every 3–6 months | free, in use today |
| Copernicus Sentinel-2 (EOX cloudless) | 10 m/pixel | annual cloudless composite (currently 2024) | free, in use today |
| Planet Labs PlanetScope (aspirational) | 3 m/pixel | daily revisit | paid, not yet wired |
| Maxar (aspirational) | 30 cm/pixel | on demand | paid, not yet wired |
2. Human-traced polygons — how Progress % is calculated
- Built footprint — hand-traced polygon on the latest cloud-free satellite capture. Roof + finished structures only. Active construction zones excluded.
- Planned footprint — official site plans, building permits (where public), FAA filings (for SpaceX), and zoning records. When the company published a master plan, we use that.
- Cross-checks — county tax records, GIS portals, drone footage from local reporters (sources cited inline on each site), satellite timelapses.
Important: these are estimates, not audited numbers. We don't have a robot doing pixel classification — a human (the project owner) traces the polygons every refresh cycle.
3. Update cadence
| Operational sites | Monthly (footprint changes are slower). |
| Expanding sites | Whenever ESRI drops a fresh capture (typically every 3-6 months); otherwise as Sentinel-2 refreshes. |
| Construction sites | Whenever fresh imagery is available — in practice every 2-3 months per site. |
| Announced sites | Monthly — looking for groundbreaking detection. |
4. Last capture per site
When the polygons were last hand-verified. Empty cells mean still on the pre-pivot data.
| Site | Status | Last update |
|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 TERAFAB | announced | 2026-05-20 |
| 🇺🇸 Gigafactory Texas | expanding | 2026-05-19 |
| 🇺🇸 Gigafactory Nevada | expanding | 2026-05-19 |
| 🇨🇳 Gigafactory Shanghai | operational | 2026-05-19 |
| 🇩🇪 Gigafactory Berlin | operational | 2026-05-19 |
| 🇲🇽 Gigafactory Mexico | announced | 2026-05-20 |
| 🇺🇸 Fremont Factory | operational | 2026-05-19 |
| 🇺🇸 Gigafactory New York | operational | 2026-05-19 |
| 🇺🇸 Starbase | expanding | 2026-05-19 |
| 🇺🇸 SpaceX HQ | operational | 2026-05-19 |
| 🇺🇸 Cape Canaveral | operational | 2026-05-19 |
| 🇺🇸 Vandenberg SFB | operational | 2026-05-19 |
| 🇺🇸 Colossus | expanding | 2026-05-24 |
| 🇺🇸 Neuralink HQ | operational | 2026-05-24 |
| 🇺🇸 Neuralink Austin | announced | 2026-05-20 |
| 🇺🇸 Vegas Loop | announced | 2026-05-20 |
5. Limitations (the honest list)
- Indoor work isn't visible. A "100% built" site can be at 0% production capacity.
- "Operational" doesn't mean "at nameplate capacity" — it means the imagery shows finished structures plus visible activity.
- Cloud cover, sun angle, and seasonal vegetation can move the polygon trace by ±2-3% between captures. We don't report sub-5% changes as news.
- Investment numbers come from company statements + government incentive disclosures. They're the company's number, not ours.
- Announced projects with no visible groundbreaking are tagged Speculative — we don't put a progress % on them at all.
- This is a one-person project, not a satellite intelligence firm. If you need audited capacity numbers, talk to your local equity analyst.
6. Citation policy
Every milestone in our database links back to a primary source — SEC 10-K filings, DART quarterly reports, IR investor decks, company press releases, government data (USGS, KOSIS, EIA, FAA), or NRC dockets where they exist. We're moving from Wikipedia-anchored citations to primary sources (county permits, FAA filings, SEC EDGAR, IR pages) across Q2-Q3 2026 — most pre-pivot site records still carry a Wikipedia revision pointer as the entry reference while that migration is in flight. Reddit and AI-generated content are never used as a sole source.
Each milestone on a site page may include an inline [source] link to the primary record (FAA notice, SEC filing, county permit, IR press release, NASA mission page, or ClinicalTrials.gov registry entry). Milestones without a verified primary-source URL are left uncited rather than padded with weak references — under-citing beats inventing.
When sources conflict, both are noted (e.g., "company guidance $20-25B, industry estimate $35-45B"). When something is an estimate, we say "est."